Friday, May 6, 2011


Place your wagers towards the even money bets, dozens, and column bets if you want to build some sort of pattern playing into your game.

The "even" money bets (red/black, odd/even, 1-18/19-36) have the lowest House Edge of all the roulette wagers. If you are playing in a casino that uses the "en prison rule" the House Edge is even lower. Place most of your wagers in areas that offer the lowest House Edge.

If you win playing a risky bet (such as an individual number that pays 35:1), this might be a good time to stop.
The average House Advantage across all of the bets on average is around 5.26%. BUT you can lower this to just over 1% if you pick your bets carefully.

Always play European Roulette if you can rather than American Roulette because this will lower the house Edge to around 2.7%. If you can find a casino that offers French Roulette featuring the "en prison rule", then this is give you even better odds down to 1.35% on even money bets.

Weight your betting on even money bets. This gives the house the lowest advantage. These roulette bets are the Red/Black, High/Low and Even/Odd bets (1.3% House Edge). Only even money bets qualify for the "en prison" rule which reduces the House Edge down even more.

Play on a roulette table that offers the en prison or la partage rule in which case you can get the House Edge down again to 1.35%. How does this work? Well, when a 0 (and 00 for the American version) comes up, you don't lose your money on even money bets, but you get the chance to remain on the board for another bet, or be taken back by the player. La partage, also known as the Surrender rule, is similar to the "en prison" rule, it returns half of your wager, thereby giving a 2.63% House Edge.

Do not place the five-number bet.  The five-number bet gives the highest House advantage (other then a single number bet). This is the worst bet you can ever make since the House Edge is 7.89%!

Some professionals in Roulette use pure physics between the ball and the wheel. It’s about measuring the speed of the turn and consistency or lack there of called “bias” to predict the ball landing on specific number or sector. This method requires training and even a computer to run calculations. But of course this can only be done in a live casino and is thus considered cheating and not allowed. The method has been used successfully but usually the individuals are caught. Studying the wheel and it physics with relation to the ball can help you predict a sector win. Top Roulette players use this method with enough accuracy that the casinos move tables around to switch it up. Casinos also hire professionals to look for this type of play, but it is had to spot. This tell me one thing, that this works! Physics is the only true measure of where the ball will land.

Professionals charge for this knowledge and training. I have seen fees upwards to 2,500 USD plus 1,000 USD of first earnings/winnings and monthly fees to follow. Too rich for my blood.

The best thing about gambling at a casino or on line is the rush, but the odds are still against you. The best you can do is to reduce the House’s Edge, but you can't eliminate it! Make a plan and stick to it. This will be your success to good gaming and only bet what you can afford to lose.



Sunday, May 1, 2011

What is Martingale Probability Theory?

The Martingale technical definition.  (Definition from WikipediA with link to WikipediA)
In probability theory, a martingale is a stochastic process (i.e., a sequence of random variables) such that the conditional expected value of an observation at some time t, given all the observations up to some earlier time s, is equal to the observation at that earlier time s. A martingale is a model of a fair game. Precise definitions are given below. Originally,
The concept of martingale in probability theory was introduced by
martingale referred to a class of betting strategies that was popular in 18th century France.
[1] The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins his stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double his bet after every loss so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. As the gambler's wealth and available time jointly approach infinity, his probability of eventually flipping heads approaches 1, which makes the martingale betting strategy seem like a sure thing. However, the exponential growth of the bets eventually bankrupts its users.Paul Pierre Lévy, and much of the original development of the theory was done by Joseph Leo Doob among others. Part of the motivation for that work was to show the impossibility of successful betting strategies.


Siminelakis, Paris (2010).
"The Splendors and Miseries of Martingales". Electronic Journal for History of Probability and Statistics 5 (1). June 2009. Entire issue dedicated to Martingale probability theory. Williams, David (1991). Probability with Martingales. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-40605-6. Kleinert, Hagen (2004). Path Integrals in Quantum Mechanics, Statistics, Polymer Physics, and Financial Markets (4th ed.). Singapore: World Scientific. ISBN 981-238-107-4. "Martingales and Stopping Times: Use of martingales in obtaining bounds and analyzing algorithms" (PDF). University of Athens.